From Daily Telegraph: Analysts at the bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods conclude that the chances of the Tory Government collapsing after failing to win support for a Brexit deal have jumped, which could lead to a snap election and Labour victory.
From The Guardian: Some argued that the dead generated more income for the Conservative Party than the living, because subscriptions from the party’s 124,000 members produced a paltry £835,000 for the party’s national accounts, which was half the £1.7m the party received from legacies and wills.
So concerned were the Conservatives about the idea that the party was literally dying off that the party deputy chairman, James Cleverly, tweeted on Wednesday night that local associations retained the bulk of membership subscriptions, amounting to a total of £4m a year. In any event, the claim is only true if the party’s living donors, such as the JCB owner, Anthony Bamford, and Lord Ashcroft, were excluded from consideration. Donors raised £34.3m between them, three-quarters of the Tories’ total annual income.
It also helps explain why the Tories have to spend so much time publicly fundraising. At this year’s fundraising Black and White ball, one person paid £55,000 to spend a day shadowing Theresa May; another paid £12,500 to have home-cooked dinner with the environment secretary, Michael Gove, and his wife, Sarah Vine.
From The Guardian: Replacing Theresa May with Boris Johnson, or other potential leadership candidates, would not boost the Conservative party’s chances of winning the next election, a poll has suggested.
In findings that will offer some relief to the prime minister, an ICM survey for the Guardian found that voters believe the Tories would be more likely to lose the next election if May was replaced by Johnson or five other potential successors.
The only scenario deemed likely to improve Tory prospects, according to the poll, was if the party was led by an unspecified person who was “quite young and able [and] not currently in government”.
From The Guardian: Labour has opened up its biggest poll lead over the Conservatives since shortly after last June’s general election, as the government’s chaotic handling of Brexit appears to have triggered a dramatic fall in support for Theresa May and the Tories.
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score as last month, but four points ahead of the Tories who have dropped by six points since early June to 36%.
May’s leadership ratings have also nosedived, while those of Jeremy Corbyn have remained stable. May’s net approval rating – when the number of people who disapprove of the way she is leading the country is subtracted from the number who approve – has tumbled from -8% in June to -24% over a turbulent political period of just five weeks.
She is now well behind Corbyn who is on -12%, little changed from -13% last month.
From The London Economic: Activate, the Conservatives’ imitation of Momentum, has folded after just eight months.
The political movement was set up to engage young people in centre-right politics but has struggled to make any headway since it was launched in August last year.
Many have argued that the group was doomed from the start having been set the impossible mission of becoming the vehicle for a conservative mass movement that never existed.
A visit to the Activate website returns a ‘404’ error – while the group’s Twitter account now shows only a single tweet under a revised name of “The artist formerly known as Activate”.
From The Independent: Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party has extended its lead over the Conservatives to eight points, according to a new poll by Survation. It puts Labour on 45 per cent, with Theresa May’s Conservatives trailing behind on 37 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats under Vince Cable on six per cent.
From The Guardian: In New Zealand the conservative National Party has lost power following their general election, to a coalition led by the New Zealand Labour Party and backed by the Greens.
New Zealand Labour has pledged to wipe out child poverty, make university free, decriminalise abortion, and make all rivers swimmable within ten years. Read more
From Politics Home: Labour’s poll lead over the Conservatives has risen to its biggest margin since the party went ahead just after the election.
Jeremy Corbyn’s party would scoop up 43% of the vote if a fresh election were held, ahead of the Conservatives on 38% – a lead that would see Mr Corbyn become Prime Minister by a slender margin.
The Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday marks a remarkable turnaround since April, when the Tories were enjoying leads of up to 24 points over Labour.
From The Independent: Jeremy Corbyn has stormed ahead of Theresa May in a new opinion poll just weeks after the Prime Minister failed to win a majority in the latest election.
From Sky News: Former Conservative deputy prime minister Lord Heseltine has warned his party that its electoral base is dying off at a rate of 2% a year.
From Daily Telegraph: Labour staged a major upset to take the London seat of Kensington by a hair’s breadth to end the 2017 General Election almost 24 hours after the polls closed.